Afghanistan’s modest economic growth in 2023-2024 has failed to translate into tangible improvements for most of its population, with a new report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) revealing alarming shortfalls in daily subsistence, growing inequality, and worsening conditions for women and rural communities.
According to the report released today, the country’s GDP grew by 2.7% in 2023-2024—its first increase since 2019—but this recovery remains precarious. Afghanistan’s trade deficit widened sharply to $6.7bn in the first three quarters of 2024, up from $5.1bn during the same period last year. The rise reflects faltering local production, sluggish job creation, and an overwhelming dependence on imports and international aid.
An estimated 75% of the population is now considered subsistence-insecure, a six-point increase from 2023. Access to basic needs such as food, healthcare, and adequate housing has deteriorated, while the effects of economic shocks and climate-related events continue to intensify. Female-headed households, rural families, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) have been hit the hardest.
Nine out of ten Afghan households reported cutting daily consumption due to the loss of income and livelihoods, further eroding their resilience to ongoing and future shocks.
The report highlights how continued restrictions on women’s education and employment have further widened the gender gap. These policies have pushed more women into poverty and social exclusion, exacerbating the overall crisis.
“UNDP’s current analysis and new data indicate the continuation of a deeply troubling trajectory for the Afghan people,” said Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP’s Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. “With the return of hundreds of thousands of people and a decline in international support, the pressure on already vulnerable communities—especially women and girls—will only grow.”
Stephen Rodriques, UNDP’s Resident Representative in Afghanistan, emphasized that humanitarian aid is insufficient, urging sustainable economic and social solutions, including lifting restrictions on women to protect their rights and boost economic growth.
Restrictions on women and girls are expected to cost the Afghan economy nearly $920mn between 2024 and 2026.
The UNDP report calls for targeted and comprehensive interventions, particularly for women-led businesses, micro and small enterprises, sustainable livelihoods in environmentally fragile regions, and enhanced social protection programs. These efforts, the report stresses, are essential to reduce Afghanistan’s dependence on aid, support inclusive growth, and build long-term resilience.
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