Why countries stand to win, not lose, with ambitious next-generation national climate plans

The annual climate meeting, COP29, is now underway in Baku, Azerbaijan. Following the recent biodiversity COP16 in Colombia, the summit is another major stress test for countries regarding climate crisis and connected issues like nature loss.

During the summit, leaders are expected to refine and define their countries’ progress towards the Paris Agreement, with some announcing their next round of climate plans. These plans, formally known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are key to developing long-term low-greenhouse gas emission strategies. This third round, due in February, is intended to cover each country’s goals for 2035. In the face of an unprecedented climate crisis, it is in every country’s interest that these plans are fit for purpose in a turbulent world.

In the last few months of 2024, flash floods across West and Central Africa affected more than 4.1 million people, fueling humanitarian and public health crises; hot oceans intensified Atlantic hurricanes, with spin-off tornadoes ravaging the US; and a record hot Northern-Hemisphere summer capped off the hottest 12-month period on record. In late October, the worst floods to hit Europe since 1967 struck Spain, killing over 200 people and displacing over 400, the intensity of which are scientifically linked to human-induced climate change. 

Part of confronting these daunting tasks is to untangle the web of crises and weave them into the fabric of national plans – building an integrated approach supporting climate action, economic resilience and sustainable development. 

Make peace with nature

Since the 1992 Rio Conventions, the issues of climate, biodiversity and desertification have been pursued in silos. But they are inherently interlinked. Research and on-the-ground projects prove we can support ecosystem and human needs alike. We have the tools to help us, such as water resource planning and bioeconomy approaches. Multi-purpose solutions are often pursued by practitioners – but policies adopted by governments must also support, incentivize and reward these integrated approaches. It’s a zero-sum game otherwise. 

Leverage carbon markets

The Paris Agreement allows countries to voluntarily cooperate to reduce emissions through international carbon markets, which could enable countries to more cost effectively achieve their climate commitments. Nearly 80% of countries have signaled an intent to participate in these markets. By one estimate, maximal participation in international carbon markets could cut the collective cost of NDC implementation by hundreds of billions annually. 

The adoption in Baku of standards for international carbon credits (however “rushed” the decision) moves these markets one step closer to implementation. Further work is needed, though, to elaborate these standards and to build a new registry system to support trading of credits. The biggest hurdle to overcome, however, lies outside the negotiating halls, where many countries still need to elaborate how carbon markets will advance their national strategies in ways that do not compromise achievement of their NDC commitments. This will require further strengthening of capacity as countries look to ratchet up their ambition. 

Phase out fossil fuels in a just and orderly manner

Governments, in aggregate, plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. So far, countries have given little explicit attention to fossil fuel production in their NDCs, an absence most notable among major fossil-fuel-producing states. The world must double down to close the gaps, and we know the benchmark: a 57% greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2035, compared with 2019 levels.  

An example being, the UK unveiled a new NDC at COP, including deep emissions cuts. Its Climate Change Committee urged for an 81% emissions drop by 2035 and developed the roadmap of how to feasibly do this while supporting job creation and the economy.  The UKs governments resulting plan fully adopted their recommendations.  

A difficult mission lies ahead for next-generation NDCs, but tools are available to help accomplish it. On 15 November, Stockholm Environment Institute’s tool LEAP, the world’s most popular software for energy, climate mitigation, and air pollution planning, was offered free to users in an additional 54 countries. Already, more than 60 governments have used it in the development of their NDCs, and they can continue using it to refine and implement their plans. 

LEAP was recently used in our work with the government of Morocco to demonstrate that by integrating climate, biodiversity and development strategies, Morocco can save an estimated US $7 billion per year by 2050 and create up to 350 000 jobs. 

Reducing the inequality between high- and low-income populations within and between countries is both a moral imperative and a concrete economic challenge. If warming and nature loss continue at pace, the global economy faces an 18% GDP freefall by 2050 due to climate change. That equates to US $38 trillion per year in 2050 – a number almost impossible to grasp. 

Tackling this is no small feat. We must create jobs, promote energy security, halt biodiversity loss, mitigate the damage to come and adapt to the changes already destroying homes, ecosystems and livelihoods. This transition must support overall equity and the special needs of vulnerable countries. 

By using some of the strategies and tools outlined here, countries can create robust NDCs that meet this moment. The scenario is tough – ambition needs to be credibly delivered for 2035, while also closing the immediate ambition and implementation gaps for 2030.  

Being off-track on 2030 targets is no reason for resignation, but instead recalling that every tenth of a degree matters for avoiding dangerous climate change. 

Each country’s health and livelihoods depend on a livable planet. NDCs are among the most important policy instruments of the century which can help guide us there.