Land Use Transitions in the Lower Songkhram River Basin in Mekong and Its Impact on Carbon Sequestration Potentia

Investigating spatiotemporal transitions in land use and cover (LULC) and their impact on carbon storage is crucial for optimizing and developing policies that prioritize climate mitigation and sustainable development. Using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs (InVEST), this study assesses carbon sequestration changes across LULC types in Thailand’s Lower Songkhram River Basin (LSRB), a Ramsar site. Future projections indicate major LULC changes under two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), where current trends persist without intervention, leading to 39.8% loss in flooded forests and significant agricultural and urban expansion; and conservation (CON), where transitions are managed through deliberate interventions, predicts 12.8% increase in flooded forest.

Additionally, by 2040, carbon storage is expected to reach 25.63 Tg C under the CON scenario and decrease to 19.43 Tg C under business-as-usual (BAU). Similarly, forest carbon is set to rise to 12.12 Tg C with CON but fall to 4.56 Tg C under BAU. The study values LSRB carbon sequestration at approximately USD 782 million under CON, highlighting the economic benefits of conservation efforts and supporting initiatives like Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES), community-based forest management, and REDD+. This underscores the importance of balancing economic development with environmental conservation, which is important for local stakeholders