The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 19 May, 2025

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NATO Air Operations Move to Bodø

As reported by High North News on May 21, Bodø is set to welcome the new permanent base of NATO’s third Combined Air Operations Centre (CAOC). The center will command and control NATO’s air operations in the Nordic and High North regions, with its temporary facilities at the Bodø Air Base becoming operational by the fall as the more permanent facilities in Reitan are renovated. The base is estimated to cost between 6.7 and 9.4 billion Norwegian kroner and is expected to bring 400 new jobs to the area. (HNN)

Take 1: The decision to locate NATO’s third CAOC in Bodø reflects a strategic emphasis on the High North amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. Beyond enhancing operational capacity, the move signals a stronger commitment to Arctic security at a time when the region is becoming increasingly militarized and contested, especially following Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. The choice of Bodø, which is already home to key national defense infrastructure, places the CAOC within the wider security architecture, reinforcing Norway’s role as a frontline NATO state given its border with Russia. From a policy perspective, the emphasis on Bodø’s symbolic and strategic value reveals NATO’s interest is both in deterrence as well as in demonstrating physical presence and readiness in the Arctic. The CAOC’s responsibilities, including command and control of regional airspace, mirror a broader pattern of infrastructural and institutional investments aimed at ensuring rapid response capabilities in areas of heightened sensitivity. The announcement also has local and political considerations. For Norway, the CAOC brings strategic clout and economic stimulus to the Bodø region, but also intensifies the ongoing debate over balancing military buildup with maintaining the Arctic as a zone of peace. While the government is presenting the decision as a security imperative, it inevitably contributes to the normalization of NATO’s military infrastructure in the Arctic, with long-term implications for regional diplomacy and environmental concerns. (Eye on the Arctic, The Barents Observer, The Defense Post)

EU Council Announces Another Sanctions Package

As reported by The Barents Observer on May 21, the European Union Council announced its 17^th package of sanctions against Russia on May 20. The sanctions target military technology access, energy revenues, and shadow fleet tankers, with additional provisions targeting human rights violators and hybrid threats. The additional 189 vessels now under sanctions have been operating in international waters, near the Norwegian coastline and in Arctic waters near Murmansk, Russia, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to 342. The sanctions will be implemented through legal and financing restrictions and the monitoring of irregular shipping practices. (The Barents Observer)

Take 2: The EU Council’s latest sanctions package reflects a continuing intensification of economic warfare in response to Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine. While sanctions have long been a preferred tool of the EU’s foreign policy, this latest package shifts to targeting the infrastructure and logistics that sustain Russia’s wartime economy, particularly in the energy sector. The explicit inclusion of vessels involved in Arctic oil and LNG transport underscores a growing acknowledgment of and willingness to confront the evasive tactics used by Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. The evolving nature of these sanctions suggests that the EU is attempting to not simply punish but to close the loopholes that have allowed Russia to maintain energy exports despite earlier rounds of restrictions in order to prevent future illicit activities. The announcement also highlights the geopolitical tension between energy security and strategic deterrence and a changing climate. The Arctic, long considered a region for environmental and diplomatic cooperation, is increasingly becoming militarized and entangled in sanctions regimes. This risks reinforcing a securitized approach to Arctic governance, where sanctions and surveillance replace earlier diplomacy and environmental stewardship efforts. The repeated flag-switching and concealment tactics used by sanctioned vessels also point to broader challenges in enforcing international norms. While the EU claims its sanctions are effective, Russia’s persistent adaptability suggests the limits of sanctions without coordinated global enforcement. This sanctions package represents a more targeted form of economic pressure, but its long-term impact depends on sustained oversight and political will. (AP News, Atlantic Council, High North News)

Growing Underwater Forests in the Arctic

As published by Eye on the Arctic on May 20, a recent publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans reveals changing conditions for flora in Arctic waters. The study of Arctic marine ecosystems looked into how warming seawater and melting ice are creating favorable conditions for the growth of seaweed, which, in turn, affect oxygen levels and carbon storage in ocean sediments. The study, based in Kongsfjorden in Svalbard, collected and analyzed sediment samples and found the presence of sulfur compounds, which suggest microbial oxygen consumption during seaweed decay, indicating the formation of low-oxygen areas. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 3: The study’s findings contribute to understanding the intricate consequences of Arctic warming, particularly beneath the ocean surface. As water temperatures rise and sea ice retreats, the expansion of macroalgae in fjord systems like Kongsfjorden suggests a shift in the ecological and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic marine environment. While above ground, forests are often used to symbolize positive environmental activity, seaweed growth, as found by the study, has a darker side: its role in driving the formation of low-oxygen, or hypoxic, zones in coastal sediments. This emerging “greening” of the Arctic seafloor is concerning for ecosystem balance. Macroalgae contribute substantial organic material, which, upon decomposition, fuels microbial activity that consumes oxygen. If seaweed expansion continues, larger and more frequent dead zones may develop, threatening sea life and altering the availability of nutrients. From a carbon perspective, the study also complicates narratives around the Arctic as a carbon sink. Though these plants do sequester carbon, the low-oxygen conditions they create may hinder long-term carbon storage and instead lead to the release of other gases like methane or hydrogen sulfide. The research underscores the interconnection of climate impacts as warming affects seaweed, seaweed affects sediments, and sediments then influence the broader ecosystem. Further research is needed to anticipate these cascading effects to inform conservation strategies for the Arctic. (Eye on the Arctic, Science of the Total Environment)

Continuing Review of Proposed Indigenous Procurement Policy 

As reported by Eye on the Arctic on May 20, the Government of the Northwest Territories (NWT) has continued to develop its procurement policy aimed at Indigenous-owned businesses in the NWT. If implemented, the policy gives preferential access to government contracts for Indigenous-owned businesses. The government aims to have the policy finalized and implemented by the end of the year, following the completion of consultations with communities in Fort Simpson and Yellowknife. The policy is being developed through dialogue with communities across the NWT and draws from the current Business Incentive Policy. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 4: The proposed Indigenous procurement policy in the NWT represents a positive shift toward economic reconciliation and inclusive development. By aiming to provide Indigenous-owned businesses with a formal advantage in securing government contracts, the policy attempts to address historic disparities in economic participation in order to create more equitable access to public-sector opportunities. While the territory already prioritizes NWT-owned businesses through the current Business Incentive Policy, this new initiative would take a further step by supporting specifically Indigenous enterprises. The policy’s strength lies in its potential to stimulate Indigenous economic development, including in remote communities where businesses are often vital local employers. The government’s approach of engaging with communities across all regions also reflects a recognition that successful implementation depends on tailoring the policy to regional contexts and concerns, and policies affecting Indigenous communities should be co-created. There remain concerns around implementation, for example, about enforcement and the risk of policy circumvention through subcontracting with non-Indigenous firms benefiting indirectly through securing contracts via nominal partnerships with Indigenous businesses. Addressing this will require monitoring and transparency in procurement processes. The policy is promising, especially given the precedent set by Yukon’s earlier adoption of a similar framework. If properly developed and implemented, this procurement policy could become a foundational tool for Indigenous economic empowerment in the North, reinforcing the government’s commitment to inclusive growth and serve as an example for other Canadian jurisdictions. (Government of NWT, Government of Yukon, The Globe and Mail)

Geoengineering Ice: Scientists Attempt to Refreeze the Arctic

As reported by Scientific American on May 20, newly published results from UK-based company Real Ice describe an experimental attempt to increase sea ice thickness as a form of polar geoengineering. The field trial took place in February and March 2024 near Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, and involved pumping seawater onto the surface to freeze and add mass. Over that period, the team treated 250,000 square meters of sea ice. Follow-up measurements conducted in May 2024 showed a significant increase in thickness in treated areas compared to surrounding ice. (Scientific American)

Take 5: The experiment by Real Ice raises significant questions within the broader debate over geoengineering in the Arctic. Geoengineering, or large-scale technological interventions aimed at altering Earth’s climate systems to counteract global warming, may offer short-term hope as climate impacts worsen. However, they also provoke ethical concerns, especially when tested in Indigenous territories without clear and genuine community involvement. In this case, although an Inuit guide assisted the researchers, there’s no indication that the residents of Cambridge Bay were meaningfully consulted or invited to participate in decision-making. This reflects a long-standing pattern of scientists and other external actors using Indigenous lands for experimentation under the guise of global good, ignoring Indigenous sovereignty and knowledge. Geoengineering is controversial both for its scientific uncertainties and because the risks are not completely known. While Real Ice frames their work as necessary because global emissions reductions may no longer be enough to save ice, critics are concerned that such efforts could distract from urgent mitigation and adaptation strategies, enabling business as usual by emitters. The long-term ecological consequences of manipulating ice formation still remain unknown. For Arctic Indigenous communities whose lives and cultures are closely tied to the land, ice, and sea, such unknowns add to the existing risks to local ecosystems, safety, livelihoods, and traditions. Underscoring this threat, a project with similar goals of protecting sea ice, this time using silica particles to reflect sunlight, was recently canceled over concerns for the local ecosystem and food chain. (Bloomberg, Climate Change News, Phys.org)